Drought increases migration intentions in West Africa, but irrigation does not reduce them on average. A new study combining Gallup World Poll data on migration intentions with local weather, cropland, and irrigation data from 13 countries between 2008 and 2015 shows that the picture changes under severe, cumulative drought conditions, when irrigation helps mitigate the effect. Income also matters: irrigation offsets the effect of drought on migration intentions among the wealthiest households, but increases migration intentions among middle-income households, consistent with the idea that relaxed credit constraints make migration more affordable. The study shows that irrigation can act as both a protective and an enabling factor for people facing drought, contributing to our understanding of how local adaptation strategies interact with the relationship between extreme climate events and migration.
New evidence from West Africa shows that irrigation can dampen drought-driven migration intentions, but its effects depend on drought severity and household income.
