Overview

Based on Senegal’s Climate Poverty and Migration: The Price of Inaction, Burzynski, M. & Szymanska, A., 15 Feb 2024, 10 p. Esch-sur-Alzette: LISER.

Context and introduction

Climate change poses a significant threat to Africa due to the continent's vulnerability to severe climate effects. Millions may experience a decline in the quality of life due to extreme weather events, exacerbating issues such as inequality and poverty. The Sahel countries, including Senegal, are particularly at risk, with climate hazards undermining economic potential and livelihoods.

Senegal is a medium-sized economy on the Atlantic coast with a population of 18 million and a GDP per capita of $4,500. It is poised to experience significant socio-economic changes due to climate shocks. Most of the population lives near the capital, Dakar, making the country highly vulnerable to multidimensional climate damage in the coming decades.

Below, we present a snapshot of the potential climatic damage under RCP7.0 in 2050, the economic consequences and the migration responses of people in Senegal.

Senegal's climate poverty and migration by 2050: the price of inaction

The impact of climate change on human mobility in Senegal

Climate change will act as a major determinant of human mobility within Senegal. According to our projections for 2030-2050 in the RCP7.0 scenario, the capital city of Dakar will see an increase of almost 500,000 people in the adult population.

Population shifts and gender dynamics in Dakar and regions

The results highlight a significant gender imbalance in the net change in Dakar's population, with almost 300,000 men and 200,000 women arriving due to climatic factors. At the same time, the regions of Thies, Sedhiou and Louga have a net gain of between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants. While in Thies the increase comes almost entirely from the immigration of men, Sedhiou and Louga record more gender-balanced net inflows of people.

Rural decline and administrative migration trends

Climate damage probably displaces people from other, rural-based areas of Senegal, with Kedougou and Matam losing approximately 100,000 and 90,000 inhabitants — mainly men opting for climate-induced migration (66,000 and 50,000, respectively).

The majority of movements within Senegal take place across administrative regions. Although reducing by 40,000 people at the country level, local migration plays a minor role in climate-related movement.

International migration patterns and climate impacts

International outmigration from Senegal is an option for approximately 133,000 people, moving mainly to Italy, France and Spain (40,000, 30,000 and 30,000, respectively). At the same time, 136,000 people decide not to emigrate from Senegal as a result of climatic shocks, choosing immobility over moving mainly to Mauretania and Gambia (66,000 and 40,000, respectively). Senegal will see a slight shift in immigration patterns due to climate damage, as 47,000 more people will move from Mauretania, while a few thousand fewer immigrate from Mali, Gambia and France. Overall, at the country level, Senegal gains 27,000 men, while losing 23,000 female residents over 2030-2050 in the RCP7.0 scenario.

Projected rise in extreme poverty in Senegal by 2050

In 2050, our model projects an increase in extreme poverty in Senegal of 2 percentage points (pp) under the RCP7.0 scenario, which translates into 400,000 more adults living on less than $2.15 a day. Women are slightly more vulnerable to extreme poverty, corresponding to 196,000 individuals, while men's exposure rises by 189,000 individuals. While in Dakar, Diourbel and Thies, almost no one is adversely affected by climate change in terms of transitioning into extreme poverty, in regions of Tambacounda, Kedougou and Kaffrine, the extreme poverty rates rise by 10.9 and 7 pp, respectively. These numbers are significantly more pessimistic than the averages for Africa (0.6 pp) and the world (1.1 pp, dominated by Asian countries).