Nearly half of Luxembourg's workforce live in a neighboring country. Relying on administrative data and Artificial Intelligence algorithms, this policy brief sheds light on the main determinants of Belgian workers’ probability of accepting a cross-border job in Luxembourg. It shows that Luxembourg's economy attracts workers from the tails of the skill distribution – i.e. both workers with relatively low levels and high levels of education. Graduates of primary schooling have almost the same probability of transition to cross-border work as holders of a bachelor degree. The probability is even greater for holders of a Master degree.

By contrast, individuals at the center of the distribution (e.g. secondary school diploma) are less likely to cross the border. The same polarized structure is obtained when skills are proxied by the pre-transition income level, rather than by level of education. Less surprisingly, the probability of accepting a job in Luxembourg is also positively correlated with past experience (having previously worked in Luxembourg), age (young people are more mobile), unemployment status, or distance to the border.

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